Assumption and Hypothesis

After stating the research problems, a researcher will define a hypothesis. The statement of a hypothesis becomes important in quantitative problem as it asks about the relationship between two or more variables. Statement of research problem usually provides only general information, thus a good hypothesis will lead to more specific information. There are some terms and features in stating a good hypothesis that will be discussed further and also some examples on hypothesis.

               Meanwhile, assumption is somewhat taken for granted exist when a researcher states the hypothesis. For example, when a researcher asks ‘can I see you tomorrow?’ of course she or he assumes that there is a tomorrow. 

1. Definition of Hypothesis

Gay (1987:53) defines a hypothesis as a tentative explanation for certain behaviors, phenomena, or events that have occurred or will occur. In other words, a hypothesis is a conjecture or proposition about the solution to a problem, the relationship of two or more variables, or the nature of some phenomenon (Wiersma, 1991:37). In our own definition, a hypothesis states what the researcher thinks the outcome/ finding of the study will be.

2. Purpose of Hypothesis

A researcher states hypothesis prior to the actual conduction of the study because the entire study, including subjects (samples), measuring instruments, design, procedures, data analysis techniques, and conclusions are determined by the hypothesis (Gay, 1987:53). Further, Ary, Donald.et.al (2002:98) formulate five principal purposes of hypothesis, such as it brings together information to enable the researcher to make a tentative statement about how the variables in the study are related, because hypotheses propose tentative explanations for phenomena, they stimulate a research endeavor that results in the accumulation of new knowledge. Also, the hypothesis provides the investigators with a relational statement that is directly testable in a research study. The most important is that hypothesis provides direction to the research and provides a framework for reporting the findings and conclusions of the study.

3. Characteristics of A Usable Hypothesis

Borg and Gall in Wiersma (1991:36) summaries four criteria of a good hypothesis as follow:

1.      The hypothesis should state an expected relationship between two or more variables

2.      The researcher should have definite reasons based on either theory or evidence for considering the hypothesis worthy of testing

3.      A hypothesis should be testable

4.      A hypothesis should be as brief as possible consistent with clarity

Ary, Donald.et.al (2002:105) add one more criteria of a good hypothesis; it should be consistent with existing body of knowledge. Gay (1987:54) explains a major characteristic of a good hypothesis is that it is consistent with previous study.

Wiersma (1991:36) clarifies what it means with testable is procedures exist for analyzing the data that will give result either supporting or refuting the hypothesis. Thus, a hypothesis should contain the operational definitions, measurable terms of the variables involved.

Therefore, Wiersma (1991:36) provides an example of hypothesis; “Bright students have good attitudes toward school.” The term bright, good, and attitudes represent types of broad, undefined generalities. Thus, he proposes a better one; “A positive relationship exists between the scores on the (specific) IQ test and the (specific) attitude inventory for students aged 9 through 11.”

The operational definitions of the variables, brightness and attitudes toward school, are defined by scores on a specific test and a specific inventory. Hence, the variables are clearly defined and there are procedures to collect the study.

4. Types of Hypothesis

Hypotheses can be classified in terms of how they are derived (inductive or deductive hypotheses) or how they are stated (substantive or statistical hypotheses). Ary, Donald.et.al (2002:99) defines inductive hypothesis as a generalization from apparent observed relationship. For instance, teachers observe learning and other student behavior every day and try to relate it to their own behavior, to the teaching methods, to their experience and so on. On the basis of their experience and knowledge of behavior in a school situation, teachers may inductively formulate a generalization that seeks to explain the observed relationship. In contrast, deductive hypothesis derived from theory.

Substantive hypotheses are sometimes called research hypotheses which are stated in declarative form. Wiersma (1991:55) defines research hypotheses as statements of expected relationship or difference between two variables. Further, Ary, Donald.et.al (2002:107) says that it may be a statement about the expected relationship or the expected difference between the variables in the study. The statement can be directional and nondirectional hypotheses. A directional hypothesis indicates the nature of the relationship or difference; a nondirectional hypothesis simply indicates that a relationship or difference exists. Wiersma (1991:56) gives an example of a nondirectional hypothesis which might state:

There is a significant difference in the math achievement of elementary students who receive microcomputer-assisted instruction and those who receive regular instruction only.

The corresponding directional hypothesis might state:

Elementary students who receive microcomputer-assisted instruction exhibit greater math achievement than elementary students who receive regular instruction only.

Another example of nondirectional hypothesis proposes by Suharmanto (2000):

1. For the students with good English achievement, the frequency of general and local strategies used in reading an Indonesian is different from that used in reading an English text
2. For the students with poor English achievement, the frequency of general and local strategies used in reading an Indonesian is different from that used in reading an English text
3. For the students with good English achievement and the students with poor English achievement, the frequency of general and local strategies used in reading an Indonesian is different from that used in reading an English text

While statistical hypothesis is stated in null form (symbolized H_o), it states that there is no relationship between the variables in the population. Statistical tests are used to determine the probability that the null hypothesis is true. If the tests indicate that observed relationships had only a slight probability of occurring by chance, the null hypothesis becomes an unlikely explanation. Therefore it can be rejected in favor of an alternative hypothesis (can be symbolized H₁).

An example of statistical hypothesis proposes by Sale (2001) as follows:

1. There are significant correlation (H₁)Strategy Inventory for Language Learning (SILL) and learners’ vocabulary achievement
2. There are significant correlation (H₁) between learners’ Learning Style and their vocabulary achievement

5. Testing The Hypothesis

  Testing hypothesis is only needed when researchers are using null hypothesis. Ary, Donald.et.al (2002:109) suggest following steps to test hypothesis:

1. State, in operational terms, the relationship that should be observed if the research hypothesis is true.
2. State the null hypothesis.
3. Select a research method that will enable the hypothesized relationship to be observed if it is there.
4. Gather and analyze the empirical data.
5. Determine whether the evidence is sufficient to reject the null hypothesis. 

6. References

Ary, Donald.et.al. 2007. Introduction to Research in Education (6^thEdn). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth/Thomson Learning

Gay, L.R. 1987. Educational Research: Competencies for Analysis and Application (3^rdEdn).

Sale, Firdaus. 2001. Vocabulary achievement in relation to the Strategy Inventory for Language Learning (SILL) and learning style. State University of Malang: Unpublished Thesis

Suharmanto. 2000. Reading Strategy in Indonesian and in English: A Comparative Study. State University of Malang: Unpublished Thesis

Wiersma, William. 1991. Research Methods in Education (5^thEdn).